Why the Thai Coup Leaders Would Have Been Abysmal as Stock Investors.
I am deeply disappointed to say that I have experienced 2 coup d'etats as a 25-year-old Thai. As an investor in stocks, I am disgusted by the poor fate the Thai has suffered over the past many decades because of the disruptions brought on by this premature measure. Whenever Thailand was on the cusp of making a remarkable (and potentially sustainable) U-turn to become a fully-fledged democracy, a coup curtailed it. There were numerous occasions when Thailand as a whole made a foray into this first world-like political order; unfortunately, these were met with an equal number of coups. Why was I disgusted as a stock investor? It has nothing to do with the market returns or GDP growth that would otherwise have been, but it is the profound short-sightedness of the ruling elites. This class of people claims to uphold the country’s best interest, yet they do not understand a rule of thumb which makes many investors, Warren Buffett included, unapologetically successful: time in the market, not timing the market.
Mr Buffett’s ideology is simple – he unfalteringly believes that the stock market will, in the long term, provides inflation-beating returns that trump those of other asset classes. Having put the money where his mouth is, Mr Buffett had gradually transformed a textile manufacturer into Berkshire Hathaway Inc, the second most profitable company in the world. Since 1941 when Mr Buffett first bought stocks, he has witnessed multiple bear markets; he saw his net worth cut in half, but he outlasted them all. It is not unreasonable to say that he stayed invested through the thick and thin because his conviction is evidence-based. A stock market is indeed a machine transferring money from the impatient to the patient. This is not unlike democracy - a machine that transforms an unfair and inefficient society into a more equitable and effective one, provided it is adopted for long enough.
Undeniably, democracy has its ups and downs. It brings great politicians at times and poor ones at others. Nevertheless, one fact remains perpetually true: over the long period, gains always outstrip losses. In a democratic society, the short term political disarrays are far outweighed by the benefits its people can tangibly and rightfully obtain over the long haul. This is also evidence-based and can be easily appreciated when one tries to name a single first world economy which is not democratic. Coup leaders only think short-term. They believe in a quick fix to political difficulties and disagreement inherent to democracy. They only want to see the gains and cannot tolerate any setbacks. This led them to intervene instead of letting the system sorts itself via educated debates and fair polls. They always cut their losses too early as they never really believe in a holding that is ‘democracy’ in their portfolio. They always think they can outsmart the system. Regrettably, this negatively impacts us as a whole. The headwind-defying ship that Thailand once was is now all but stalled, if not backtracking. This occurs in the setting where other ships are speeding forwards, leaving us in the rear-view mirror. It is plausible we emerge a mediocre country under the current regime, but we do have the potential to be much more. Please give democracy another chance.
Can we give democracy another chance? (long-term this time, please) Credit: Thairath
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